Fire the Forecast

Stop pretending it's accurate. Start making it useful.

Author

Sales Systems
June 08, 2025

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Fire the Forecast

Stop pretending it's accurate. Start making it useful.

Let’s be honest: most sales forecasts are glorified guesses. They’re driven by gut feel, outdated CRM notes, and the same “likely to close” optimism that’s burned teams quarter after quarter.

You don’t need a prettier spreadsheet you need a better system. Elite teams don’t just predict outcomes; they engineer them. They track behavior, not belief. They measure buyer actions, not rep confidence.

Want to know who really has a handle on their number? It’s the manager who ties forecasts to non-negotiable sales behaviors. Things like booked meetings with actual decision-makers. Mutually agreed-upon next steps. Budget conversations already underway. If that’s not happening, the deal isn’t happening.

The best teams don’t “hope” their way into Q4. They build toward it with brutal clarity and behavior-based math.

3 Steps to Fix the Forecast—Fast

  1. Ditch “Gut-Feel” Forecasting
    If a deal's forecast isn’t tied to specific buyer actions, it’s wishful thinking. Start requiring evidence for every stage.

  2. Introduce a Confidence Score
    Score each deal 1-5 based on objective criteria like timeline, decision access, and urgency. It’ll humble even your cockiest rep and sharpen their accuracy.

  3. Forecast Based on Process Milestones
    Use your sales process as the basis for projections, not what reps think will close. Predictability comes from repeatable steps, not opinions.